A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
